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The Government Shutdown And Its Effect On Existing Home Sales

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The Government Shutdown And It's Affect On Existing Home SalesExisting home sales for September fell by 1.90 percent from August’s revised reading of 5.39 million sales to 5.29 million sales. Economists had expected 5.30 million sales for September, so a slow-down in existing home sales had been anticipated.

The National Association of REALTORS cited higher home prices and mortgage rates as factors contributing to fewer sales of previously owned homes.

Home Prices Easily Outpaced Income Growth

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, home prices “easily outpaced income growth.” Consequently, affordability has fallen to a five-year low. Mr. Yun also indicated that a government shutdown was expected to affect home sales in October.  

NAR also cited a “notable increase” in federal flood insurance premiums as a deterrent to homebuyers in flood zones. The premium increase was set for October 1. 

There is some good news. The NAR reported that existing home sales had increased from 4.78 million in September 2012. As compared to the reading for September 2013, this was an annual increase of 10.70 percent in existing home sales.

This increase represented the 27th consecutive month for increasing sales of existing homes on a year-over-year basis.

Higher National Median Home Price

According to the NAR report, the national median home price increased by 11.70 percent to $199,200 as compared to one year ago. This was
the 10th consecutive month of double-digit year-over-year increases in existing home prices.

NAR estimated that it would take five months to sell the 2.21 million previously owned homes currently available, which indicates that available existing homes remain in short supply.

Sales of distressed properties rose to 14.00 percent share of existing home sales, up from August’s share of 12.00 percent. August’s level was the lowest share of distressed properties sold since NAR began tracking monthly sales of distressed properties in October 2008. Sales of distressed properties during September included 9.00 percent foreclosed properties and 5.00 percent short sales.

Distressed properties typically sell for less than market value; fewer distressed properties included in existing homes for sale would contribute to higher prices. September’s percentage of distressed sales is down by 10 percent year-over-year.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 21, 2013

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 21, 2013Many of the economic and housing reports typically scheduled were delayed by the federal government shutdown.

The National Association of Homebuilders Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for October was released Wednesday with a reading of 55, lower than the projected 58 and previous month’s revised reading of 57. The original reading for September was 58, which was the highest measure of builder confidence since 2005.

NAHB cited concerns over mortgage rates and the federal government shutdown and its consequences as reasons for homebuilder confidence slipping.

While the NAHB HMI reading was lower than last month, it remains in positive territory as any reading over 50 indicates that more home builders are confident about housing market conditions than those who are not.

Pent-up demand for homes is fueling home builder confidence, which grew by 34 percent over the past year and exceeded the rate of home construction growth.

NAHB Releases Housing Starts Data For September

The Census Bureau was unable to release data on housing starts for September. NAHB released a report estimating September housing starts would be approximately 900,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

Single family home construction is expanding while multi-family home construction remains volatile. The NAHB report estimates single-family housing starts for September at between 620,000 and 630,000 homes annually.

Fed Beige Book: Residential Real Estate Improved, 4 Districts Report Slower Growth

The Fed released its “Beige Book” survey of its 12 banking districts on Wednesday. Eight districts reported little or no change in economic conditions and 4 districts reported slower economic growth for September and October.

Real estate and home construction were improved, although several Fed districts reported concerns over rising mortgage rates. The Beige Book report was based on data gathered October 7, one week after the government shutdown began.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Jump

Freddie Mac reported increases in average mortgage rates; the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.28 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.70 percent. This was five basis points higher than the previous week.

The rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose by two basis points to 3.33 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose by two basis points to 3.07 percent. Discount points for both 15 year mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were unchanged at 0.70 percent and 0.40 percent respectively.

Weekly jobless claims reported on Thursday rose from the prior week. 358,000 new jobless claims were filed as compared to the expected number of 335,000. During the prior week, 373,000 new jobless claims were filed. The latest data was from the week of October 7, the second week the government was shut down.

What‘s Ahead: Delayed Government Data Expected

Some federal agencies have given dates for releasing data delayed by the shutdown. These included Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment rate for September, which are set for release October 22. The Consumer Price Index and Core CPI for September are scheduled for October 30. 

How To Manage Those Fallen Leaves

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How To Manage Those Fallen LeavesThe kids are back in school, the weather is getting cooler and your yard is covered in a layer of fallen leaves. Yep, it’s that time of the year again, but don’t think of fall leaves as a chore. They can be a useful resource for fertilizing your lawn or even decorating your home for autumn.

Finish The Raking

It’s tempting to just let the leaves lie in the yard. It’s good fertilizer anyway, right? Wrong. You should rake everything up as soon as the trees begin to look bare, or else risk the blanket of leaves smothering your lawn over the winter season. Gather them up in plastic bags and put them to use.

Refuse To Rake Leaves

If you can’t bring yourself to pick up a rake, you do have an alternative. Wait until the leaves are dry and crunchy and fire up the lawnmower once more before winter. Many mowers have a mulch setting that will chop the fallen leaves to bits.

The smaller pieces won’t suffocate your lawn, and the crushed leaves make a good fertilizer. If you’d rather use the leaf bits in the garden or a flowerbed, use a grass clipping catcher with your mower to gather up the pieces as you mow.

Use Mulch And Fertilizer

Fresh chopped leaves are a good homemade mulch. Put a layer on the garden and the flower bed to replenish the soil over winter. Also, be sure to put a thick layer around young trees and shrubs to keep them warm. If you really want to get the most out of your leaves, then take them to the compost pile.

Mix the leaves in with the regular green yard waste, and the leaves will boost the composting process into overdrive. The fully composted material makes a potent fertilizer.

Get Crafty

Set some leaves aside to take indoors. The changing colors of the fall leaves are part of the beauty of autumn. Why not bring some of that beauty into the house?

Fill a vase with leaves for a seasonal centerpiece, or use a wire frame to make a wreath for the front door. You can make leaf etchings with the kids or simply use one as a bookmark.

It’s sad to see so many fall leaves burned up in piles, or put out with the trash. The leaves on the lawn aren’t just a mess to be cleaned up. Inside or outdoors, autumn leaves are an easy, natural, and free material. Be sure to put them to use!

Housing Market Index Shows Builders Continue To Have A Positive Outlook

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Housing Market Index Shows Builders Continue To Have A Positive OutlookThe National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped two points to 55 from September’s revised reading of 57. Builder concerns over labor costs and availability and economic uncertainty related to the federal government shutdown were noted as factors contributing to the lower reading for October. 

Key Points Noted In October‘s HMI included:

  • Builder confidence remains above 50, which indicates that more builders have a positive outlook on housing market conditions than those with negative sentiment.
  • The October HMI cites pent-up buyer demand in markets throughout the US as a positive influence on October’s reading.
  • A spike in mortgage rates lowered builder confidence, but the Federal Reserve’s decision not to change its quantitative easing program eased fears about rapidly rising mortgage rates.
  • The federal government shutdown, along with builder and consumer concerns about the national debt ceiling also contributed to a dip in homebuilder confidence.
  • National HMI results are comprised of homebuilder ratings of three factors. Homebuilders rated current market conditions at 58, which was two points lower than September’s reading.
  • Builder outlook for market conditions over the next six months fell by two points to October’s reading of 62. The lowest reading came in at 44 for buyer foot traffic. This reading was also two points lower than the September reading.

Regional HMI Results Mixed

Readings for regional homebuilder confidence varied for October:

Northeast: The reading for October fell three points to 38. Concerns over the government shutdown were felt here.

Midwest: Up by one point for October at 64, the Midwestern region posted the only gain for October.

South: The October reading for the Southern region was unchanged at 56.

West: The West lost one point on its HMI for October. Lack of available homes and developed land for building likely contributed to this reading.

NAHB Projects Single And Multi–Family Housing Starts

The NAHB estimated that starts for single and multi-family housing units for September will fall between 875,000 and 900,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Single-family housing starts are expected to range between 620,000 and 630,000 for September. 

NAHB produced this estimate in lieu of the US Department of Commerce report on housing starts that was delayed due to the federal government shutdown. NAHB also reported continued volatility in multi-family housing construction. 

A continuation of the government shutdown will almost certainly create ongoing consequences for housing and mortgage lending.

Get The Lowdown On Private Mortgage Insurance

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Get The Lowdown On Private Mortgage InsuranceYou may have heard the term Private Mortgage Insurance when looking to finance real estate. What is PMI, and how do you know when you need to purchase it?

The answer can be hard to find among all the real estate jargon you’re hearing lately. Below is the short version of what you need to know.

What Is Private Mortgage Insurance?

PMI is an extra insurance required by some lenders to offset their risk of you defaulting on your home loan. When you put down less than 20 percent of the real estate’s value, your lender may tell you that you have to buy PMI.

It is usually added into your monthly mortgage payment until the equity in your real estate reaches 20 percent.

Under the current law, the PMI will be canceled automatically at 22 percent equity, if you are current on your payments. If you aren’t current, the lender does not have to cancel the insurance because the loan is high-risk.

After getting caught up on your payments, the PMI will be cancelled. Any money that you have overpaid must be refunded to you within 45 days.

What If Your Real Estate Increases In Value?

With a conventional loan, it may take as many as 15 years of a 30-year loan to pay down 20 percent. But, if property values in your area rise, you might be able to cancel the PMI sooner.

Some lenders may be willing to consider the new value of your home to determine the equity in your home. You may be responsible for any fees, like an appraisal, that occur.

You’ll have to weigh the costs of the appraisal against the savings of the PMI premium. In most cases, you’ll find that the added expense is worth it. Private mortgage insurance is a good thing if you can’t afford to pay 20 percent of the cost of your real estate as down payment.

Are you a first-time homebuyer? Now is the best time for you to make the investment. Call your trusted mortgage professional to find out why.