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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Rate Increases in July

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Rate Increases in JulyHome price growth fueled by high demand for single-family homes was higher in July according to Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Analysts said that millennials seeking to purchase homes and the continued exodus from large urban areas propelled rising home prices. Home prices grew fastest in the West and Southeastern regions.

While home prices grew moderately before the pandemic, high unemployment has not impeded rapid home price growth since the pandemic. Low mortgage rates and more demand for homes overcame consumers’ concerns about jobs and the economy. Analysts said that rapidly rising home prices could benefit homeowners struggling with mortgage payments as additional equity could provide more cash for relocation.

20-City Home Price Index: Three Top Cities in July

Home prices rose at the fastest pace in Phoenix  Arizona at 9.20 percent year-over-year. Seattle, Washington reported a home-price growth rate of 7.00 percent; Charlotte, North Carolina reported year-over-year home price growth of 6.00 percent. In July.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many workers to switch from commuting to their jobs to working from home. Home-buyers also looked for homes in less-populated areas. 16 of 19 cities reported in July’s 20-City Home Price Index reported a faster pace of home price growth than in June. Detroit, Michigan did not report home prices for the July 20-City Home Price Index.

Homeowner migration from congested cities to suburbs was confirmed by Robert Dietz, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders, who said: “…builders in other parts of the country have reported receiving calls from customers in high-density markets asking about relocating.” Building single-family homes in all price ranges would help ease the shortage of homes.

FHFA Reports Highest Home Price Growth Rate From May to July

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported a record price growth rate of more than two percent for the two months between May 1 and June 30. FHFA reports data on homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 31, 2020

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 31, 2020Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, along with data on new and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new and continuing jobless claims were also published.

Case-Shiller: Home Price GrowthHolds Steady in June

National home prices grew at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 4.30 percent in June, which was unchanged from May’s year-over-year growth rate for home prices. The 20-City Home Price Index rose by 3.50 percent year-over-year in June.  

Phoenix, Arizona reported the leading year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.00 percent. Seattle, Washington held second place with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 6.50 percent. Home prices in Tampa, Florida grew at a year-over-year pace of 5.90 percent.   

Home price growth rates rose in five of 19 cities reported in the 20-City Index; the Wayne County Michigan metro area did not report for June’s 20-City Home Price Index. 

New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Dip in July

Sales of new homes rose for the third consecutive month in July according to the U.S. Census Bureau. July’s reading of 901,000 new homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis was the highest pace of sales since 2006. Sales of new homes were 36 percent higher year-over-year. Slim inventories of pre-owned homes for sale and low mortgage rates boosted new home sales, but analysts said that builders also face headwinds including higher materials costs and affordability.

Pending home sales dropped in July from June’s year-over-year reading of 15.80 percent to July’s reading of 5.80 percent. Ongoing concerns over COVID-19, high unemployment rates and, concerns over jobs have caused would-be-homebuyers to delay their home purchase plans.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower rates for fixed-rate mortgages last week with the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages falling by eight basis points to 2.91 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages also fell by eight basis points to 2.46 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.91 percent and were unchanged from the prior week.

New jobless claims fell to 1.01 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.10 million initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 14.54 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 14.76 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on construction spending, private and public sector jobs growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Case-Shiller: June Home Prices Rise as Affordability Crisis Grows

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Case-Shiller: June Home Prices Rise as Affordability Crisis GrowsAccording to the National Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June, U.S. home prices rose 4.30 percent year-over-year, which was unchanged from May’s year-over-year home price growth rate. Home prices are expected to continue growing through 2020 as businesses reopen and COVID-19 restrictions ease.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index for May showed Phoenix, Arizona held the top spot with 9.00 percent year-over-year growth; Seattle, Washington followed with 650 percent growth in home prices. Tampa, Florida maintained its third-place position with 5.90 percent year-over-year home price growth. Five of 19 cities reporting in the 20-City Index showed a higher rate of home price growth. Wayne County, Michigan, which includes the Detroit metro area, did not provide information for June’s 20-City Home Price Index.

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, wrote: “As has been the case for the last several months, home prices were particularly strong in the Southeast and West and were comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.”

Short Supply of Single-Family Homes Continues to Fuel Rising Home Prices

Continued shortages of homes for sale and rising demand for homes caused home price gains in June. Analysts said that while low mortgage rates encouraged buyers to enter the market, overall housing market conditions did not contribute to affordable home prices. Analysts expressed concern that potential buyers were calculating affordability based on principal and interest payments and were not considering other costs of homeownership including taxes, hazard insurance, and mortgage insurance premiums that could be added to their monthly loan payments.

High home prices, COVID-19and ongoing unemployment, and decreasing growth in rental rates are obstacles to continued growth in home prices. Quarterly data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows how average home prices have fallen in 2020. The national average price of a new home in the first quarter of 2020 was $383,000; in the second quarter of 2020, the average price of a new home was $368,000.

Average New Home Prices Fall in All U.S. Regions

Average regional U.S. home prices fell from the first quarter to the second quarter according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In the Northeast, the average price of a home fell to $622,000 from 645,200. The average price of a new home fell from $337,000 to $319,200 in the Midwest and fell from $325,300 to $315,500 in the South. The West had the highest average new home price in the second quarter of $459.900, but this was lower than the average new home price of $471,300 in the first quarter of 2020.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 24, 2020

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - August 24, 2020Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Indices, and sales of previously-owned homes. Readings on housing starts and building permits issued were released. Weekly reports on mortgage rates, new and continuing jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Rises in August

The National Association of Home Builders reported that builder confidence in housing market conditions rose six points to an index reading of 78.in August. The expected reading of 73 was based on July’s reading of 72. Homebuilder confidence was based on sharp demand for homes as city dwellers sought larger homes in less dense housing metro areas.

Ongoing shortages of pre-owned homes for sale boosted builder outlook as would-be buyers turned to new homes as supplies of pre-owned homes remained low.

The National Association of Realtors® reported higher numbers of previously owned homes sold in July at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.86 million sales. 5.50 million sales of previously owned homes were expected based on June’s seasonally adjusted annual pace of 4.70 million sales.

Rising home sales could indicate increasing numbers of available homes, rising confidence in the economy, and sellers putting their homes on the market for reasons including buying bigger homes or relocation for less congested living conditions.

Commerce Department Reports Rising Rates of Housing Starts and Building Permits Issued

The Commerce Department reported a jump in U.S. housing starts in July with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.496 million starts as compared to an expected pace of 1.330 million housing starts and an annual pace of  1.258 million housing starts reported in June.

Mortgage Rates Rise; Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose three basis points to 2.99 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.54 percent and were eight basis points higher. Interest rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged one basis point higher at 2.91 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims reported by states rose to 1.11 million new claims filed last week and surpassed the expected a reading of 910,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of  971,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 14.80 million ongoing claims from the prior week’s reading of 15.50 million continuing claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, reports on new and pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady In April

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady In AprilCase-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed little change in April as home prices rose by 0.10 percent to a year-over-year average of 4.70 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index showed corresponding home price growth of 0.10 percent to 4.00 percent year-over-year.

Ongoing influences on home price growth before the coronavirus pandemic included short supplies of available homes coupled with high demand for homes and low mortgage rates. While closures and shelter-at-home restrictions in many markets slowed buyer and seller activity,  real estate analysts said that home-buyer desiring to buy larger homes to accommodate working at home helped maintain home prices. Homeowners relocating to less congested areas also helped with stabilizing home-price growth in April. 

Case-Shiller 20-City Index: Home-Price Growth Rates Increases in 12 Cities

The three top cities in April’s 20-City Home Price Index were Phoneix, Arizona with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 8.80 percent; Seattle, Washington reported 7.30 percent yearly growth in home prices. Minneapolis, Minnesota reported home-price growth of 6.40 percent.

Home price growth rates increased in 12 of 19 cities reported. Detroit Michigan did not report to the 20-City Index for the second consecutive month. The coronavirus pandemic continued to grow and spread throughout the U.S during May; some states that opened their economies quickly are now reconsidering as Covid-19 cases rise at faster rates. Changing data and emerging responses to the spreading virus are expected to impact home price growth in the coming months according to whether the coronavirus spreads or diminishes.

FHFA Home Price Index: Home Prices Increase Despite Coronavirus Pandemic

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported 5.50 percent home price growth year-over-year in April compared to the March reading of 5.90 percent year-over-year growth. FHFA expects home prices to continue rising as real estate markets return to normal. With spring and early summer home sales impacted by coronavirus-related restrictions, Lynn Fisher, deputy director of research and statistics for FHFA, expected sales to pick up during the summer months.

As coronavirus infection rates increase, further restrictions and closings are anticipated and could negatively impact real estate markets and home prices soon.