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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in April

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Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index indicated slower home price growth in April. Year-over-year, home prices rose 5.50 percent in April as compared to 5.60 percent in March. Year-over-year readings are calculated on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

Case-Shiller’s 20 City Home Price Index was also lower with a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year reading of 5.70 percent gain in April as compared to the year-over-year March reading of 5.90 percent. Seattle, Washington held on to its lead for home price growth with a year-over-year reading of 12.90 percent; Portland Oregon followed with a year-over-year reading of 9.30 percent, and Dallas, Texas maintained third place in the 20-City Home Price Index with a year-over-year reading of 8.40 percent.

Month–to–Month Home Prices Rise in 19 of 20 Cities

Seattle also led in home price growth with a rate of 2.60 percent from March to April. Portland followed with home price growth of 1.60 percent, and Denver, Colorado reported month-to-month home price growth of 1.30 percent, which edged Dallas Texas out of third place in month-to-month home price growth rates.

Analysts have been watching housing markets carefully due to a prolonged shortage of homes for sale against high demand for homes in many areas. David M. Blitzer, Chair and Managing Director of the S&P Indices Committee, noted that skyrocketing growth in home prices must slow and eventually decline. During a press conference, he asked,” Will home price gains gently slow, or will they crash and take the rest of the economy with them?”

Analysts questioned how long home prices can continue to grow and remain sustainable. Affordability is a significant aspect of home price growth as first-time and moderate-income home buyers provide opportunities for present homeowners to sell and move up to larger homes. Mr. Blitzer eased fears of an imminent housing market crash and said, “For the moment, conditions appear favorable for avoiding a crash.”

Mr. Blitzer said that more housing starts and an expected increase in home buyers were positive signs for sustaining current home prices. Upcoming readings on consumer confidence and sentiment, new home sales and mortgage rates will support estimates of when and how much home prices will continue to increase.

Case-Shiller: February Home Prices Grow at Fastest Pace in 3 Years

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According to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, February home prices grew at their fastest pace in three years. While home prices have steadily grown in recent months, growth rates slowed in many areas month-to-month; the escalation of home prices from January to February indicates stronger housing markets. National home prices increased by 0.20 percent in February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.80 percent appreciation.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index posted a month-to-month gain of 0.20 percent for a year-over-year gain of 5.90 percent. Seattle, Washington again topped the 20-City index with year-over-year home price growth of 12.20 percent. Portland Oregon followed with an annual price gain of 9.70 percent. Denver, Colorado was replaced by Dallas, Texas with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 8.80 percent. Fifteen cities posted higher year-over-year gains in home prices in February as compared to January readings.

Month–to Month Home Prices

Case-Shiller National, 20-City and 10-City Home Price Indices reported moth-to-month 0.20 percent home price growth before seasonal adjustment. After prices were seasonally adjusted, national home prices increased by 0.40 percent month-to-month; the 20-city index showed an increase of 0.70 percent and home prices in the 10-City Index rose by 0.60 percent after seasonal adjustment.  

Home Prices Rising on High Demand, Low Inventory of Homes Available

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee, said that ongoing shortages of homes for sale continue to boost home prices as demand exceeds supply. First-time and moderate income home buyers continue to face affordability concerns as rising home prices can negatively impact buyers’ ability to qualify for mortgage loans.

Analysts said that while rising home prices are a sign of economic strength, housing market indicators such as housing starts have not had corresponding growth rates. New construction is viewed as the only way to ease demand for homes as rising home prices have so far not cooled demand.

Case-Shiller: December Home Prices Highest in More Than Two Years

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December home prices continued to rise per December readings for Case-Shiller’s National and 20-City Home Price Indices. On average, national home prices increased by 5,80 percent year-over-year and exceeded November’s year-over-year reading of 5.60 percent. The 20 City Index, which analysts follow more closely than the National Home Price Index, posted a year-over-year gain of 5.60 percent in December, which exceeded an expected reading of 5.40 percent and November’s year-over-year reading of 5.20 percent growth.

West Posts Highest Home Price Growth

The West continued to dominate home price growth rates with Seattle, Washington posting 10.80 percent year-over-year growth while Portland, Oregon and Denver, Colorado posted year-over-year gains of 10.00 percent and 8.90 percent respectively. New York, New York posted the lowest year-over-year gain in home prices with year-over-year growth of 3.10 percent. Washington, D.C. followed with 4.20 percent growth in home prices; Cleveland, Ohio posted a year-over-year gain of 4.40 percent.

Home Price Growth Rate Doesn’t Indicate a New Housing Bubble

David M. Blitzer, Chairman and Managing Director of the S&P Indices Committee that oversees Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, said that home prices adjusted for inflation averaged a year-over-year growth rate of 3.80 percent. While higher than average, Mr. Blitzer said the current rate of home price growth “is not alarming.”

While rising home prices may sideline moderate-income and first-time homebuyers, high demand for homes and ongoing shortages of homes for sale continued to drive prices up. Real estate pros typically consider a six-month supply of available homes an average inventory reading, but the current supply of homes for sale averages three to four months. Recently rising mortgage rates were also cited as contributing to higher home prices; rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage average 4.20 percent as compared to 6.40 percent on average since 1990.

Questions of affordability and rising rates could impact first-time buyers who enable current homeowners to sell their homes and “move up.” If large numbers of first-time buyers are sidelined by rising home values and mortgage rates, home prices could be impacted if investors and cash buyers fail to fill in gaps between high home prices and affordability.

Home Builder Index Dips in January

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January’s National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index dipped two points from December’s revised reading of 69 to 67;  the index reading forecast for January was also 69.Analysts said that January’s reading was the second highest (after December 2016) since the peak of the housing bubble in 2005. January’s dip in builder sentiment was attributed to easing of builder enthusiasm, which spiked right after the U.S. presidential election. To put January’s home builder confidence reading in context, NAHB says that any index reading over 50 indicates that more builders than fewer have confidence in housing market conditions.

NAHB Sub–Index Readings for January

Three sub-index readings are used in compiling the NAHB Housing Market Index reading. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions fell three points to 72; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months fell two points to 76. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new housing developments dropped one point to 51.

Builders surveyed continued to cite the cost of new lots for development and the lack of skilled labor as obstacles to higher builder confidence.

After releasing January’s index readings, the NAHB said that while January’s readings were lower than those for December, a majority of builders have expressed confidence that the new administration will reduce regulatory pressure on home builders. NAHB also cited home builder concerns over mortgage rates, which rose nearly a percentage point in November and December before falling. Despite ongoing concerns, builder sentiment has steadily improved over time. On average, builder confidence averaged a reading of 61 in 2016 against 2015’s average reading of 59 and the 2014 average reading of 52.

Builder Outlook Seen as Key to Easing Home Shortage

Real estate and mortgage pros have consistently said that building more homes is necessary to ease the ongoing shortage of available homes. NAHB’s Housing Market Index is closely followed as a benchmark of home builder confidence. Higher builder confidence in current and future housing market conditions is viewed as a potential indicator of home building activity, but housing starts have not been uniformly allied with builder confidence.

Shortages available homes creates high demand creates concerns for potential buyers seeking affordable homes. Rapidly rising home price, particularly in high demand metro areas, have sidelined buyers who cannot compete against buyers making cash offers on homes with rapidly escalating prices. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 3, 2016

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Last week’s economic releases included reports on new and pending home sales, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and regularly scheduled weekly reporting on mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims. Readings on consumer sentiment and confidence were also released.

New and Pending Home Sales Lower as Peak Sales Season Winds Down

August readings for new and pending home sales were lower than for July; analysts said that slim supplies of available homes and rising home prices contributed to slower home sales. Peak home sales typically occur during spring and summer. Homebuyers with school-aged children prefer to be settled into a new home when school starts in August and September.

According to the Commerce Department, new home sales achieved their second highest reading since the Great Recession. Although lower than July’s reading, August sales of new homes reached 609,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected a reading of 600,000 new home sales based on July’s reading of 659.000 new homes sold. August’s reading was 20.60 percent higher year-over-year. High demand for homes appears to be kicking home builders into higher gear as they strive to ease slim inventories of available homes.

The impact of short inventories of available homes was reflected in August’s reading for pending home sales. Home sales awaiting closing fell in August from July’s reading of +1.20 percent in July to 2.40 percent in August. The National Association of Realtors® said that home sales are declining due to very limited inventories of available homes. Rapidly rising home prices and strict mortgage qualification requirements also contributed to slipping sales. After home buyers sign a purchase contract, they are at the mercy of changing mortgage rates their ability to qualify for a mortgage. Pending home sales supply an indication of future closings and mortgage loans.

According to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for July, home price growth dipped from June’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 percent to 5.00 percent. Slim inventories of homes for sale and high demand were again cited as primary reasons for slower home price growth. While demand is high, slim supplies of available homes can cause would-be buyers to postpone their home search until more homes are on the market.

Mortgage Rates Fall, New Jobless Claims Rise

Mortgage rates fell across the board last week according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell six basis points to 3.42 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was four basis points lower at 2.72 percent. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages had an average rate of 1.81 percent, which was one basis point lower than the previous week’s reading Discount points were also lower and averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims rose last week to 254,000 claims, but new claims were lower than the expected reading of 259,000 new claims which was based on the prior week’s reading of 251,000 new jobless claims. New jobless claims have stayed below 270,000 new claims for three months for the first time since 1973.

In prepared testimony before the Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen discussed problems facing two major banks and said the Fed’s goal was managing its regulatory stance to support financial stability.

September’s Consumer Confidence Index reading rose to 104.1, which exceeded analysts’ estimated reading of 99.3 and August’s reading of 101.1.

What’s Next

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on construction spending and several labor-related releases including ADP Payrolls, Non-Farm Payrolls and the National Unemployment Rates. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims are set for release as usual.