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NAHB Housing Market Index Ticks Upward

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NAHB Housing Market Index Ticks UpwardSpring is almost here, and the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index (NAHB HMI) thawed slightly in March.

The current reading of 47 is one point higher than for February, but still indicates pessimism among a majority of builders surveyed. Analysts expected a March reading of 50.

The gauge of builder confidence stayed near its lowest level since May.

March’s NAHB HMI reading remained below the benchmark reading of 50, which indicates that an equal number of builders are positive about housing market conditions as those who are negative.

A reading over 50 indicates that more builders are positive than negative. Last August the NAHB HMI reading reached 58, its highest level since 2005.

Kevin Kelly, NAHB’s chairman said that builder concerns included a lack of land available for development, the lagging effects of severe winter weather and labor shortages.

NAHB HMI Details Show Regional Variances

The NAHB HMI national reading is based on builders’ views of three aspects of housing markets. The March reading of 47 is based on three components. The reading for prospective buyer traffic in new home developments rose by two points to 33.

Builder expectations for present sales of single-family homes rose from 51 to 52. Builder confidence in home sales in coming months fell from a reading of 54 to 53.

Rising mortgage rates and home prices along with inconsistent labor markets influenced builder confidence concerning future home sales.

March Readings For Regional Home Builder Confidence Were Varied:

  • Northeast: March’s reading was five points lower at 29.
  • Midwest: Builder confidence gained three points in March for a reading of 52.
  • West: Builder confidence dropped by five points to a reading of 53.
  • South: March’s reading rose by two points to 48.

In related news, the Department of Commerce reported housing starts for February dropped to 907,000 as compared to January’s reading of 909,000 housing starts and expectations of 908,000 housing starts.

Building permits for February rose by 7.70 percent to their second highest level since the recession for a total of 1.02 million permits. The rise in building permits was attributed to construction plans for condominium complexes and rental units.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 4, 2013

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week November 4, 2013Last week’s economic news came from a variety of sources. Most significant was the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee statement after its meeting ended Wednesday. The statement indicated that the Fed saw moderate economic growth. FOMC did not taper its purchase of MBS and Treasury securities.

The FOMC statement announced the committee’s intention to closely monitor economic and financial developments “in the coming months,” which suggested that the FOMC is taking a wait-and-see position on reducing its $85 billion monthly asset purchases.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Fall

The Fed’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing, was implanted in 2012 with a goal of stabilizing mortgage rates and other long-term interest rates.

The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales fell by 5.60 percent in September. Uncertainty over the FOMC’s decision concerning tapering its asset purchases during its September meeting and concerns over a then potential government shutdown.

These were noted as primary reasons for the drop in pending home sales, which are measured by signed real estate contracts. Pending Home Sales are used for estimating future closings and mortgage loan activity.

Tuesday’s economic reports included the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for August. Home prices increased by 12.80 percent year-over-year in August as compared to 12.30 percent year-over-year for August 2012. August’s reading shows a dampened pace of rising home prices.

The Conference Board, a research organization, reported that consumer confidence fell from a reading of 80.2 in September to 71.2 in October. A reading of 75.00 was expected, but consumer confidence crashed as the government shutdown and its consequences diminished consumer and investor confidence.

According to ADP, a payroll administration firm, private-sector payrolls came in well shy of the expected 150,000 new jobs with a reading of 130,000 jobs. October’s reading was also lower than September’s reading of 145,000 new jobs.

Weekly jobless claims brought good news; new jobless claims came in at 340,000 and fell by 10,000 new claims from the previous week’s 350,000 new jobless claims. Expectations had been for 335,000 new jobless claims.

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates fell. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by three basis points to 4.10 percent, with discount points down from 0.80 percent to 0.70 percent.

The average rate for a 15-year mortgage fell by four basis points to 3.20 percent, with an uptick in discount points from 0.60 percent to 0.70 percent. The rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped by four basis points to 2.96 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.40 percent.

What‘s Coming Up

There is no housing or mortgage economic news scheduled this week other than Freddie Mac’s PMMS due on Thursday.

Reporting for this week includes Leading Economic Indicators, Weekly Jobless Claims, Non-farm Payrolls and the National Unemployment Rate will be posted. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released Friday.

This week’s economic reports are expected provide a general gauge of the economy and information about how consumers are responding to recent economic events and news. 

Recent Government Activity And Its Effect On Mortgage Interest Rates

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Recent Government Activity And Its Effect On Mortgage Interest RatesMortgage rates typically are tied more to the yields on the 10-year Treasury note more than any other indicator. With the government in flux as the shutdown happened and ended, mortgage rates are also changing.

Overall, mortgage rates have decreased because of a lack of confidence in the government’s ability to get its finances under control.

Although rates spiked in September when the Fed hinted that they would not be purchasing as many bonds, they quickly released an announcement that they would actually be maintaining their current purchasing habits.

The Time Is Ripe For Homeowners

Since then, mortgage interest rates have been dropping back down to their previous levels. With 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates continuing at very low levels, the time is ripe for homeowners to purchase or refinance.

In the day following the reopening of the government, mortgage rates continued at their low levels, which surprised some economists. The stock market went down and yields on the 10-year Treasury note also decreased, which both suggest a lack of confidence in the government.

Despite their ability to come to an agreement, investors and economists note that it is just a temporary fix, and there will likely be anothershowdown looming. Rates may remain low for a little while, but as the government begins releasing more economic data, mortgage interest rates could increase if the data shows growth in the economy.

Buyers Expect An Increase Of Applications

The government shutdown did have an effect on the volume of applications for government mortgages, like FHA and VA loans. Both reached a six-year low, largely because there were no staff on hand to answer questions over the phone and the offices were running on skeleton crews.

As the offices are back up and running again, buyers are expected to increase their volume of applications because those who had been delaying their applications now need to get the ball rolling on their home purchases.

Amidst all of the uncertainty, one thing is quite clear. It’s unlikely that interest rates will drop significantly lower than they are now, so buyers looking to get a mortgage and homeowners looking to refinance may be best off locking a rate soon rather than waiting.

Beware Of Zombie Titles

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Beware Of Zombie TitlesWith the economic downturn, anyone dealing in real estate quickly became familiar with previously little-known terms such as foreclosure and short sale. Now that the housing market is picking back up and people are moving on, a new term is coming to light — zombie titles.

The Zombie Title

This is when a home has been vacated because the owners defaulted on their loan and their bank started the foreclosure process. However, for some reason or another the bank never completed the foreclosure and sold the home.

So, when the city starts fining someone for the overgrown grass and dilapidated structure, the homeowner who thought they were finished with the property gets the bill.

A Home That Keeps Haunting

Homeowners think they don’t own the property any longer and therefore try to move on by rebuilding their credit score and finding a new place to live. It can be a rude awakening to find out that not only do they still own a home they could have been living in, but also its long vacancy has caused it to fall into disrepair.

It‘s Spooking The Neighborhood

These vacant homes can decrease the value of a neighborhood. If the bank or the un-suspecting homeowner are neither one taking care of the property, then it can become overgrown and an eyesore on the block. It becomes a problem with no solution because the owner won’t want to invest any money in fixing up the property when the bank could come back with the foreclosure at any time.

Nail Shut The Foreclosure Coffin

Homeowners who have foreclosed on a home should double check that their bank actually followed through to closing on a sale. They could contact their lender or check public property records just to make sure. Otherwise, they could be haunted by their housing nightmare all over again.

Don’t let the zombie title of a past property haunt your future! Check with your bank to make sure you’re free and clear of your foreclosure. If you’d like more information on zombie titles or have other questions, please contant your trusted mortgage professional.

What You Should Know About Pending Home Sales This Month

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What You Should Know About Pending Home Sales This Month Pending home sales fell in September by -5.60 percent, and were 1.20 percent lower year-over-year. This is the first time in more than two years that pending home sales have fallen below year-earlier readings. September’s reading was below August’s reading of -1.60 percent.

The National Association of REALTORS, which released the report, expects lower home sales for the fourth quarter of 2013 and flat sales into 2014. NAR provided good news in its forecast of 10 percent growth in existing home sales in 2013 as compared to 2012.

A spike in mortgage rates in August coupled with rapidly rising home prices were seen as major factors leading to lower pending sales.

Real estate analysis firm CoreLogic has reported that August home prices were 12.4 percent higher than for the previous 12 months; this was the fastest annual growth rate for home prices since February 2006.

While positive news for homeowners and housing markets, rapidly rising home prices can cause some buyers to postpone or cancel their plans for purchasing a home.

Economic, Government Policy Challenges Reduce Buyer Enthusiasm

In addition to higher mortgage rates and home prices, recent concerns of investors and consumers about the government shutdown and its consequences were noted as factors contributing to lower pending home sales.

High unemployment rates are a lingering influence, as would-be home buyers waver in their decisions to take on a long-term obligation when unemployment rates remain higher than normal and job security is questionable.

Fed Expected To Maintain Bond–Buying At Current Level

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve meets this week and is expected to maintain its current level of $85 billion per month in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. The fed’s program is intended to keep long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, low as a means of supporting the economic recovery.

Mortgage rates are affected by bond prices; if the fed reduces its monthly bond purchases, demand for bonds would fall, and mortgage rates would be expected to rise.

Mortgage rates spiked in August on expectations that the FOMC would taper its monthly bond-buying, but have since trended lower.