NY Mortgage

The Mortgage Scoop
You are here: Home / Archives for Market Trends

Boom Or Bubble? – Home Prices Hit Record Highs Across America

by

Boom Or Bubble? - Home Prices Hit Record Highs Across AmericaThe rapidly rising home prices currently found in many parts of the United States make it seem like the Great Recession of 2008 never happened. It took approximately eight years for home prices to recover the values that were equivalent to those they had before the recession.

After reaching this point of recovery, since around 2016, real estate prices have been going up very quickly in many cities.

The Best Recovered Housing Markets

Here are the fully-recovered housing markets analyzed by ATTOM data service for the second quarter of 2019 that have exceeded the peak valuations from before the recession.

This list of winners shows the percentage that they are now above their pre-2008 peaks:

  • Greeley, Colorado (87% up)
  • Shreveport, Louisiana (81% up)
  • Denver, Colorado (80% up)
  • Austin, Texas (77% up)
  • Fort Collins, Colorado (76% up)
  • Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas (72% up)
  • Nashville, Tennessee (71% up)
  • San Antonio, Texas (58% up)
  • Houston, Texas (54% up)
  • San Jose, California (54% up)

It took quite a while for homes to have this much appreciation in value, which in most cases meant that the homes, first, had to increase significantly to overcome the lowered values from pre-recession peaks.

Homeowners Waiting Longer To Sell

Homeowners, who were wise and able, waited for this to occur. This accounts for the median of eight years that homeowners waited before selling now. Before the Great Recession, the median holding period for selling a home was only four years after purchase.

Homeowners who were able to hang on to their homes after the Great Recession hit, and then ride it out until now, are, in general, being rewarded for waiting to sell.

The Hottest Markets For American Cities

Most American cities are hot real estate markets. The appreciation rate for annual increases is up 89% of all the metro market areas.

Cities showing the greatest annual appreciation rates are:

  • Atlantic City, New Jersey (16% increase)
  • Boise City, Idaho (14% increase)
  • Chattanooga, Tennessee (13% increase)
  • Mobile, Alabama (11% increase)
  • Madison, Wisconsin (11% increase)
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin (9% increase)
  • Boston, Massachusetts (9% increase)
  • Salt Lake City, Utah (9 % increase)
  • Columbus, Ohio (8 % increase)
  • Birmingham, Alabama (6% increase)

Summary

Whether this a continuing boom or an early indication of another real estate bubble that might eventually burst is anyone’s guess. It is a decent time to sell if selling a home is in the plans. It is a more challenging time for home buyers. However, the one thing the Great Recession taught us all is that housing prices do not always go up.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, please consult with your trusted home mortgage professional.

Should You Brace For A Potential Market Downturn Next Year?

by

Should You Brace For A Potential Market Downturn Next YearDon’t panic, a looming recession may be good news for those wanting to sell their homes. The experts say this recession may happen in 2020, so there is still plenty of time to make plans for how to deal with a potential economic downturn.

In many parts of America, especially in popular cities, the real estate markets are super hot for sellers. Home sales are coming in at prices that are record highs. For sellers in these hot markets, it might be time to sell. For buyers, able to wait until next year, the prices may come down.

What The ‘Experts’ Say

A Pulsenomics survey of 100 real estate market experts says that the pressures on the economy, which are negative, are not coming from the housing market this time. In fact, the Federal Reserve announced it will not make any changes until 2021, so the financial market supporting home loans will be coasting along pretty much as it is now.

The damage to the U.S. economy is coming from the delayed effects of the tariffs. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the tariffs is not the issue. The tariff changes that already went into effect, will have an economic impact next year or the year after.

Economists use the analogy of observing a big, slow-moving tidal wave. Scientists can see it coming from miles away. If those potentially affected by the danger pay attention to the warnings soon enough, they may have a chance to get out of the way.

Half the experts see the tariffs having a significant impact in 2020. Most of the other half see it coming in 2021. Nobody thinks the recession will hit before the end of 2019.

Summer 2019 – Selling Time

Home sales toward the end of summer are usually the strongest when compared to other times of the year. After returning from vacation, and before school starts, it is a popular time to look for a home when the weather is still nice outside.

Next Year 2020 – Buying Time

If a recession hits in 2020, then home sales prices may go down due to lowered demand. Again, this may be helpful for buyers who wait until next year to buy a home.

Conclusion

It is interesting to see that any possible recession will not be caused by the housing market this time. Real estate experts think that the housing market will price-in the effect of the recession up to one year ahead of when it hits.

If there are plans to sell a home, such as going into retirement and wanting to downsize or buy an RV for a happy retirement traveling, now may be an opportune time to consider selling.

If there are plans to buy a home and there is no rush, just take the time to work with your real estate agent to get a good deal and wait for a possible overall economic slowdown to get a better price. And be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss your financing options.

A $400,000 Profit From Flipping A Single House?

by

A $400,000 Profit From Flipping A Single House 1Flipping homes is popular once again. It took about eight years after the Great Recession that started in 2006 for home prices to rebound to the levels seen before the recession. Then, by 2016, in many areas, home prices started to rapidly increase.

The increases in home prices caused more flipping activity due to the potential profits. CNN reports the average gross profit on a flipped home sold during the past three years was about 50%.

In 2017, one real estate speculator took nearly one million dollars ($985,00) in cash and bought a home in an “as-is” condition, sight-unseen. That is what Mr. Lin He did, hoping to make some easy profit.

The Math

Flipping properties successfully is math with a bit of luck mixed in. Mr. He had good luck with his purchase in that it was in Malibu, California. He bought the home at a price well below its market value. The home was a foreclosure that listed for sale at $1.39 million. There were no buyers at that price, so the home went up for auction in 2017. Mr. He was the high bidder at $985,000.

That price was irresistible. Simple math meant that there was about $400,000 in potential profits between the purchase price and the value of the home, once the home was back in a nice condition.

Mr. He was very happy to buy the home for that low price. Then, he went to visit the property.

The Mess

The house was a disaster. The previous owner, who lost the house to the bank, was obviously angry about the foreclosure and intentionally broke as much as possible. The condition of this home, made the most-wrecked fixer-upper look like a palace compared to the mess bought by Mr. He.

After he saw the home in person, Mr. He admits the home was in even worse condition than he expected. On top of that, there was an extended delay caused by the local building department, which took six months to issue the building permit needed for the construction. Then, renovations cost $300,000 and the comprehensive remodeling work went on for three full months after it started.

The Result

In early 2019, the home was ready and beautifully prepared for sale with expert staging. It listed with a very successful real estate agent in the Malibu area who marketed the property well as a featured listing.

The listing price was $1.97 million, which was double the price paid by Mr. He to buy the home. In less than three weeks, it sold for the full listing price, giving Mr. He about $400,000 in gross profits after the renovation expenses.

Mr. He was very lucky that the home prices rose so quickly that he got the $400,000 profit he thought was in the deal when he bought the home, even though he had to invest $300,000 in the renovation work.

Summary

With 50% average gross returns potentially possible, flipping is attractive to many; however, as Mr. He says, “It is not as easy as it looks on television.”

If you are interested in investing in a property to flip, be sure to consult with your trusted home mortgage professional to discuss financing options.

How To Find Motivated Sellers In Your Real Estate Market

by

How To Find Motivated Sellers In Your Real Estate MarketBargains in real estate may come from identifying motivated sellers who are willing to let a property go for less than it is really worth. Real estate investors who acquire properties at a discount from current market value enhance their success by increasing their profit potential. Real estate agents who list properties owned by motivated sellers increase their chances to sell a property quickly and have happy sellers who might refer them in the future.

Here are some tips on how to find motivated sellers:

Distressed Discounts

A property that lists for a long time and then the listing shows a discount is a clear sign the owner is becoming motivated. However, just because a property shows a discount from the original listing price, it still may not be a bargain. It is important to learn if the present owner has an unreasonable expectation. Check the recent comparable sales (comps) and then offer no more than 25% less than the sales price of the lowest comp.

Track Foreclosures

For real estate investors with the liquidity to do all-cash deals, tracking foreclosure dates creates opportunities. Properties may be bought just before the final foreclosure date at a large discount because the owner knows that the house will soon be lost anyway.

Short Sales

Another all-cash deal is the short sale. In this type of sale, the lender is driving the deal. The lender is willing to accept a steeply-discounted price to avoid an expensive legal foreclosure process. These homes almost always sell for way below market price and the seller is highly motivated.

Divorce Proceedings

A couple going through a disputed divorce may be forced to sell a home in order to be able to divide the assets owned by them. These are highly motivated sellers who may simply want to get rid of the home fast as part of the process of being finished with the relationship.

Estates

Another reason why a home may need to sell is if the person who owned it died. An estate sale may be a good deal if the executor of the estate is motivated. This happens if there are multiple family members who are impatient and have claims to a portion of the assets as their inheritance.

Will Pay Cash For Houses

A simple sign or flier posted many places with “Will Pay Cash For Houses” and a telephone number on it actually may work in some areas to find motivated sellers.

Personal Networking

Ask everyone if they know of someone who needs to sell a home quickly.

Summary

Finding motivated sellers is a useful thing to do for investors looking for great deals and real estate agents wanting faster-selling properties to list. Ask a homeowner why they want to sell to learn their motivation. Property owners who experience troubles create opportunities for others who are ready to help them sell a property fast and when the need is urgent.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to consult with your trusted home mortgage professional.

New York Penthouse Sells For $238 Million – Is This A Real Estate Bubble About To Burst?

by

New York Penthouse Sells For $238 Million - Is This A Real Estate Bubble About To BurstThe most expensive home sold in America, so far, was a New York penthouse that sold for $238 million in January 2019. It is on the top of a building that overlooks Central Park. The 26-story luxury condo building designed by Robert A. M Stern is nearly all sold out.

Who Has That Kind Of Money?

The proud buyer of the penthouse is Ken Griffin. His net worth is estimated to be $9.6 billion. He is the founder of the Citadel hedge fund. Griffin is 50 years old. A few days before buying the NYC penthouse, he closed on a home in London that overlooks St. James Park near Buckingham Palace. For that 200-year-old home, he paid just a paltry $122 million.

Griffin’s New York penthouse is 22,000 square feet of ultra-luxury living. It sold for more than twice the amount of the second palace record-holder in America. That is a penthouse on the One57 building, which sold for $100.5 million in 2014.

Boom Or Bust?

One might think that a penthouse sale setting a new almost unfathomable record would indicate a vibrant bullish market in New York residential real estate. Well, not exactly. It did raise the median sales price of a residential sale in New York City to over $1 million from being below this amount at the end of 2018. Prior to this sale, the median price was trending lower.

Forbes reports that the current economic trends are not normal. Usually, the NYC real estate market goes up when the stock market is up. However, the NYC residential real estate is down in spite of the robust economy.

Properties selling for top-dollar at prices that are hard to imagine could be a sign of a real estate market collapse. In general, the NYC residential market has been in a steady decline over the past year. The lowest number of closings in a decade happened during the first quarter of 2019.

Investor Uncertainty

There is a general sense of uncertainty for residential buyers in NYC, where the average one-bedroom condominium sells for over $1 million. Uncertainty makes potential buyers take longer to decide on making a home purchase in the Big Apple.

Add to this uncertainty, there is the new “mansion tax” that was approved by New York City as part of its budget in April 2019. The mansion tax is now 1% on residential sales of $1 million or more that goes up to a maximum of 4.15% on homes sales of $25 million and up.

Did you just do the math? Griffin would have paid $9.87 million for the new mansion tax if he waited until April 2019 to buy his penthouse. So maybe he feels like he got a bargain by saving nearly $10 million on the purchase?

Summary

In spite of the record price for the penthouse sale in NYC, the residential market continues to soften. The new mansion tax is not going to help sales either. Unless you have money to burn, as Griffin does, it may not be the best time to invest in residential properties in NYC if you hope to make a return on your investment when selling them.

Your trusted home mortgage professional is well-informed about the market trends in your area. Be sure to set up an appointment if you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property.